NASA has updated the likelihood of asteroid 2024 YR4 hitting Earth in 2032 to 3.1%, a slight increase from last week's 2.6%, which has sparked concern and speculation online. The asteroid, roughly 177 feet (54 meters) in size, was first detected on December 27, 2024, by the El Sauce Observatory in Chile. While its size is large enough to destroy a major city upon impact, it is too small to threaten global civilization.
The update has been accompanied by a viral 3D simulation of the asteroid's impact, showing a dramatic and catastrophic strike on a major metropolis. This visual representation, created by artist Alvaro Gracia Montoya, has fueled further anxiety on social media. However, experts, including Bruce Betts, chief scientist at the Planetary Society, have urged caution, emphasizing that such probabilities are subject to fluctuation as more data is gathered, and the risk of impact remains low.
In January, the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN) issued an alert when the chance of impact crossed 1%. Since then, the probability has continued to climb, peaking at 3.1%. Despite the increased risk, this still means there's a 96.9% chance the asteroid will miss Earth entirely. As astronomers track the asteroid’s trajectory with greater precision, the likelihood of a collision is expected to decrease.
There is also a slight 0.3% chance that the asteroid could collide with the Moon instead. NASA's modeling suggests that the chances of a significant impact remain minimal, and with ongoing monitoring, the situation is expected to be well-controlled.
To summarize, while the updated impact probability has garnered attention, experts reassure the public that the risk remains low, and the asteroid's trajectory will continue to be refined as more observations are made.
https://www.thehansindia.com/news/international/nasa-estimates-31-chance-of-asteroid-impact-in-2032-simulation-shows-devastating-effect-947235
https://www.thehansindia.com/news/international/nasa-estimates-31-chance-of-asteroid-impact-in-2032-simulation-shows-devastating-effect-947235
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